Poker Variance Calculator: How to Predict Swings & Protect Your Poker Bankroll
Unsure how to use the Poker Variance Calculator? Scroll down for instructions before you begin.
Simulate Your Swings Now:
NLH 6-max: 75-120 BB/100
PLO full ring: 100-140 BB/100
PLO 6-max: 120-160 BB/100
Expected Profit Ranges
Downswing Risk in Sample
Why aren’t all swings visible?
To keep the chart readable, we only display 20 simulation paths visually. However, the statistics in the tables are calculated using 10,000 simulations for high accuracy.
Crush Variance: Play on the Softest Poker Sites
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Champion Poker
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A poker variance calculator simulates your long-term results so you can see realistic upswings, downswings, and risk of ruin before they happen. At PLO365, we focus on Omaha Poker (PLO4, PLO5, PLO6), but the tool works for NLH and mixed games if you input accurate win rate and standard deviation numbers.
Quick Answer: What the Poker Variance Calculator Does for You
The PLO variance calculator runs Monte Carlo simulations using your win rate, standard deviation, and number of hands to output confidence intervals, downswing depth and frequency, and minimum bankroll for a chosen risk of ruin (1%, 2%, or 5%).
What you get from the PLO365 poker variance calculator:
- Expected range of results in BB and buy-ins over your chosen sample size
- Typical worst downswing depth and how often you’ll experience it
- Bankroll management requirements for your target risk of ruin percentage
- Probability that your observed winrate reflects your true winrate
- Visual simulation of 20 random simulation paths with your exact parameters
For full accuracy, check and compare your stats from tracking software like Hand2Note, DriveHud2, PokerTracker 4, or Hold’em Manager 3. Then plug those real numbers into the calculator instead of guessing.
How the PLO365 Poker Variance Calculator Works
The calculator is built for grinders who care about bb 100, standard deviation, and risk of ruin, not for fun guesswork or motivational exercises.
The engine uses Monte Carlo simulation. It generates thousands of randomised session runs using your chosen win rate, standard deviation, sample size, and bankroll inputs. Then it aggregates those runs into EV lines, confidence intervals, and downswing distributions that show what your poker career might actually look like.
Core mechanics:
- All results display in big blinds (BB) and BB/100
- Format-agnostic design works for NLH, PLO, PLO5, PLO6, Zoom, fast-fold, and anonymous pools
- PLO players should expect higher variance with SD values often ranging 120–180 BB/100 in real games
- The model assumes a normal distribution per 100 hands, which is standard for poker simulation modeling
- PLO365 built and tuned this calculator using real PLO database samples from 2020–2025 mid-stakes online poker games
Our default SD guidelines are PLO-relevant because we play PLO. This isn’t a generic NLH tool with Omaha added as an afterthought.
Step-by-Step: How to Use the Poker Variance Calculator
In this section, you’ll enter your numbers, run the simulation, and read the graphs in under one minute. No advanced math required.
Key input fields:
- Win rate (BB/100): Enter your net result after rake, from your tracker or try different scenarios
- Standard deviation (BB/100): Found in your tracker’s overall or session reports. For accurate PLO SD calculations go with a 120-180 BB/100 range
- Hands to simulate: Typically 10k–1M depending on your planning horizon
- Current bankroll: In buy-ins (usually 100 BB = 1 buy-in)
Where to find your numbers:
Pull your stats from your Omaha Trackers & Huds tool. Use at least 50k–100k hands of data from the specific stake and format you’re modeling. Mixing PLO200 and PLO500 hands into one number creates misleading averages.
Concrete example: A PLO5 6-max regular with a measured 5 BB/100 winrate, 140 BB/100 SD, and 250,000 hands planned for 2026 clicks “Calculate.” The tool generates 20 sample career paths, shows a confidence interval band around the EV line, outputs worst/best run statistics, and calculates the minimum bankroll for their chosen risk of ruin.
What the outputs tell you:
- Graph showing 20 random samples with EV as the center line
- Light green lines and darker bands for 70% and 95% confidence intervals
- Text readout of best and worst simulated runs
- Calculated minimum bankroll for your risk of ruin target
- Estimated probability of going broke with your current bankroll
You can rerun the simulation after adjusting parameters. Lower your SD by table-selecting softer sites. Improve your win rate through study. Watch how your bankroll management requirement shrinks with each improvement.
Entering Your Data Correctly
Your winrate should be the net result after rake and rakeback, not raw pre-rake numbers. Use at least 100,000 hands of data where possible. Smaller samples inject too much noise into your planning.
Standard deviation appears in most trackers as “Std Dev (BB/100)” or similar. If you don’t have tracking data yet, use these realistic starting ranges:
| Game Type | Typical SD Range (BB/100) |
|---|---|
| NLH 6-max | 75–120 |
| PLO 6-max | 110–180 |
| PLO5/PLO6 or loose pools | 130–200+ |
| Zoom/Fast-fold | Add 5–15% to base |
Critical warnings:
- Don’t cherry-pick only your best months. Include all hands from the stake and format you’re modeling.
- Players who mix stakes should run separate simulations per stake (PLO200, PLO500, etc.)
- New players without long-term stats should use conservative defaults: lower assumed win rate, higher SD
Better to overestimate risk than to lose money because you trusted a small sample heater.
Reading the Sample Chart (20 Random Runs)
The main chart shows 20 colored profit lines measured in BB over your chosen number of hands. A black Expected Value line runs through the middle representing your theoretical long run performance.
Visual elements:
- The green lines show all the above EV outcomes
- The red lines show all below EV outcomes
- The doted line is the pure EV line
What to look for:
- Some runs finish well above EV, others far below
- Big downswings appear even when long-term EV is clearly positive
- The spread between best and worst outcomes can be enormous in PLO
- Runs that look identical at 50k hands may diverge wildly by 500k hands
The best and worst individual runs from all simulated trials appear in a legend or text block under the chart.
Real example: In a 250k hand simulation, one sample might finish +50 buy-ins while another finishes only +5 buy-ins. A third might dip to -20 buy-ins at the 150k hand mark before recovering. All three players have identical skill levels. That’s poker variance simulation in action.
Downswings: Visualizing the Pain Before It Happens
A downswing is any period where your cumulative winnings fall below a previous all-time peak. We measure it in BB depth and hand duration. Every winning player experiences them. The question is whether your poker bankroll survives them.
The PLO variance calculator includes a dedicated downswing chart view. It shows one long simulated run (1M–10M hands) with two curves: total winnings in BB and current downswing depth from your last peak.
Numerical reality checks:
A 3 BB/100 winner with 160 BB/100 SD at PLO200 has a 37,3% risk to have a 10,000+ BB downswing in a 1 million-hand sample. That’s 100+ buy-ins of temporary losses while still being a long-term winner.
A marginal 1 BB/100 winner? The worst outcome after 1 million hands is losing over 160 buy-ins, and the risk of dropping over 100 buy-ins is 66,7%.
The chart includes tooltips or a stats box showing:
- Largest downswing depth (in BB and buy-ins)
- Longest downswing length (in hands)
- Time spent in various downswing brackets
Downswing Tables: Frequency and Duration
Below the chart, the tool displays two tables built from massive backend simulations (100 million+ hands). These answer the questions many poker players avoid asking: how bad can it get, and how often?
Table 1: Downswing Depth
| Downswing Size | % Time Spent in This or Worse | Events per 1M Hands |
|---|---|---|
| 500+ BB | 40–55% | 8–12 |
| 1,000+ BB | 25–35% | 4–6 |
| 2,000+ BB | 12–18% | 1–3 |
| 5,000+ BB | 3–8% | 0.3–0.8 |
Values vary based on win rate and SD inputs
Table 2: Downswing Duration
| Duration (hands) | Chance of ≥1 per 1M Hands | Median Length Once Started |
|---|---|---|
| 10k+ | 85–95% | 18k |
| 25k+ | 60–75% | 42k |
| 50k+ | 35–50% | 78k |
| 100k+ | 15–25% | 145k |
PLO example:
With 3 BB/100 win rate and 150 BB/100 SD, being in a 2,000+ BB downswing approximately 25–35% of the time is completely normal. It doesn’t mean you suddenly became a losing player. It means you’re playing a high-variance poker format.
Important disclaimer: Simulations slightly underestimate worst-case tails because real pools include tilt, seat changes, and evolving lineups. Add a conservative buffer to whatever the bare numbers suggest.
Using the Variance Calculator for Bankroll Management
The main reason to use a poker variance calculator is to set a up a proper bankroll management that keeps your risk of ruin acceptably low. Everything else is secondary.
The tool calculates minimum bankroll in buy-ins for a chosen risk of ruin using your win rate, SD, and target hand volume. This replaces guesswork with actual results from simulation.
NLH example:
A 6-max NLH player with 3 BB/100 win rate, 90 BB/100 SD, targeting <5% risk of ruin over 500k hands needs approximately 60–70 buy-ins.
PLO examples with 100,000 hands and a 100 buy-in bankroll:
| Player Profile | Win Rate | SD | Risk of Ruin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Solid PLO reg | 4 BB/100 | 140 BB/100 | 0.13% |
| Marginal PLO winner | 1.5 BB/100 | 160 BB/100 | 2.08% |
| PLO5 aggressive style | 3 BB/100 | 180 BB/100 | 2.37% |
Factors that inflate bankroll management needs:
- Loose-aggressive play styles
- High table counts (more variance per session)
- Tough, high-rake environments
- Marginal edges against improving player pools
Factors that reduce bankroll management needs:
- Tighter strategies with lower SD
- Good table selection targeting weak opponents
- High rakeback deals (CoinPoker, BCPoker, and ChampionPoker)
- Soft, recreational-heavy pools (WPT Global, Phenom Poker)
Grinder Hack: Serious grinders should target a maximum 1–2% risk of ruin for their “life roll” but can accept higher variance on a segregated shot-taking sub-bankroll when moving up stakes.
Bankroll Rules for PLO vs NLH
Generic community rules need refinement based on actual calculator outputs. Here’s a realistic framework:
| Game Type | Strong Winner | Small Winner | Marginal Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| NLH 6-max | 50–75 buy-ins | 75–100 buy-ins | 100–150 buy-ins |
| PLO 6-max | 80–120 buy-ins | 120–180 buy-ins | 180–250+ buy-ins |
| PLO5/PLO6 | 100–150 buy-ins | 150–220 buy-ins | 220–300+ buy-ins |
Run the calculator rather than relying on generic rules. A small change in win rate, from 3 BB/100 to 2 BB/100, can nearly double your required bankroll for the same risk level.
Rake environment, pool softness, and rakeback significantly change effective win rate. A 4 BB/100 winner on a soft site with 20% rakeback has completely different bankroll needs than a 2 BB/100 grinder fighting through high-rake regular-infested pools.
Grinder Hack: Separate your life expenses from your poker bankroll. Never stake yourself for PLO with rent money. Simulated downswings can last 100k+ hands. The last thing you need is financial pressure amplifying tilt during an extended losing streak.
Why Rake and Site Selection Change Your Variance (and Profit)
Rake doesn’t change mathematical variance directly. It crushes your effective win rate. That makes every downswing feel longer and more dangerous relative to your expectation.
Two players with identical skill and SD can have completely different long-term graphs. The difference? One plays high-rake pools with minimal rakeback. The other plays soft games with better rake structures.
Use the PLO variance calculator to compare scenarios:
Run your simulation with “current site” assumptions. Then rerun with “optimized site” assumptions. The bankroll safety difference can be dramatic.
Site recommendations from the PLO365-approved stack:
WPT Global
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↩️30% Rakeback
🪙Free Casino Coin up to $100
🐟Soft Action
Phenom Poker
↩️up to 35% Rakeback
📈Play & Earn Site Equity
🐟Soft Action
🌐Network: Independent
Champion Poker
💳Cards & Crypto Accepted
🌐Network: iPoker
Concrete comparison:
Simulate 3 BB/100 win rate vs 1 BB/100 win rate while keeping SD constant at 130 BB/100. The 1 BB/100 scenario might require 150+ buy-ins versus 90 buy-ins for the 3 BB/100 scenario. Long breakeven stretches become far more likely with the thinner edge.
At PLO365, we recommend using our rake and equity calculators to estimate your true post-rake win rate. Then feed that number into the PLO variance calculator. Proper bankroll management starts with honest numbers.
Key FAQs About Poker Variance & the Calculator
These questions come up constantly in online poker strategy discussions. Each answer opens with a direct statement, then provides the math and context you need for informed decisions.
What Is a “Good” Standard Deviation in Poker?
Standard deviation measures the spread of your per-100-hand results around your average, expressed in BB/100.
Typical ranges by format:
| Format | SD Range (BB/100) | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 6-max NLH | 75–120 | Tighter styles toward low end |
| 6-max PLO | 110–180 | Most regs fall 130–160 |
| PLO5/PLO6 | 130–200+ | Larger pots, more multiway action |
| Live PLO | 150–250+ | Fewer hands/hour, splashier play |
Tighter, more nitty players generally have lower SD. Aggressive multi-tabling regs, frequent 3-bettors, and PLO maniacs sit on the higher variance end.
Open your tracker. Find “Std Dev (BB/100)” or the equivalent field. Input that number directly into the PLO365 variance calculator.
Accept high SD in spots where EV is high and the game is soft. Compensate with larger bankrolls and stronger mental state control. Higher variance isn’t bad luck. It’s the price of playing profitable but swingy games.
How Many Hands Do I Need to Trust My Win Rate?
100,000 hands offers only a rough estimate. Real confidence requires 300k–500k+ hands in the same format and stake.
Numeric benchmark:
For a player with 90 BB/100 SD, 100k hands gives a 95% confidence interval of approximately ±1.8 BB/100. A displayed 4 BB/100 might truly lie between 2.2 and 5.8 BB/100.
PLO’s higher variance widens these intervals. PLO players often need more hands than NLH players to determine their true win rate with precision.
Use the PLO variance calculator to experiment. Plug in your hands played and see what confidence intervals it returns around your observed win rate. A better understanding of sample size prevents overreaction to short run results.
Don’t overreact to 30k–50k hand heaters or downswings. Such samples are tiny relative to PLO variance. Many players mistake bad luck or good luck for skill changes when the data simply hasn’t converged yet.
How Many Buy-ins Do I Need for Online Poker?
Direct rule of thumb: 50–75 buy-ins for solid NLH 6-max winners, 80–120 for solid PLO winners, 120–250+ for marginal winners or very high-variance environments.
The most accurate answer comes from the calculator. Enter win rate, SD, target risk of ruin, and read the resulting bankroll recommendation.
Example:
A small-edge PLO player (2 BB/100, 160 BB/100 SD) aiming for <5% risk of ruin over large volume may need double the bankroll of a stronger 5 BB/100 reg with identical SD.
Volume Grinders and semi-pros should err conservative, especially if poker profits cover living expenses. The return on investment from playing it safe is staying in the game.
Shot-taking strategies can be modeled by plugging multiple bankroll levels into the calculator. Compare risk profiles at each stake. See how many hands you can play before reassessing.
What Is Risk of Ruin in Poker?
Risk of ruin is the probability that your bankroll hits zero (or a defined stop-loss level) before your long-term edge realizes.
The PLO variance calculator uses your win rate, SD, and bankroll size to estimate this probability under ideal, tilt-free conditions.
What the percentages mean:
A 5% risk of ruin means that if 100 identical copies of you play with that roll and edge, approximately 5 go broke.
Grinders aiming for a serious poker career should target low risk of ruin (1–2%) on their main life bankroll. Allow higher risk on isolated shot-taking sub-rolls.
Reality check: Tilt, game selection mistakes, and moving up too fast all effectively raise real-world risk above the pure mathematical value. Expect to need stricter actual bankroll choices than the bare simulation suggests.
Does Rake Affect Variance, or Only Win Rate?
Rake mostly lowers effective win rate rather than changing per-hand standard deviation. But lower win rate makes the same swings feel brutal relative to expected results.
Higher rake means more time spent breakeven or slightly losing. Downswings last longer. Recoveries take more hands because your underlying edge is thinner.
Numeric example:
A 4 BB/100 winner before rake might shrink to 1.5 BB/100 after rake on a tough site. That difference could double required bankroll for the same target risk of ruin.
One of the easiest ways to reduce variance-induced stress is to lower rake via better site choice and rakeback. Then rerun the variance calculator with the improved win rate.
At PLO365, we recommend using our internal rake tools and approved sites (CoinPoker, BCPoker, Champion Poker) to structurally improve EV before trying to simply tough out variance.
Is the Calculator Accurate for PLO4, PLO5, and PLO6?
Yes. The math behind the poker variance calculator is format-agnostic. As long as you input realistic win rate and SD values, the simulation works for PLO4, PLO5, PLO6, NLH, and mixed cash games.
PLO naturally has higher variance due to bigger pots, more multiway action, and higher equity volatility. PLO players should use higher SD estimates than NLH players.
Typical PLO SD benchmarks:
- Standard 6-max PLO4: 110–160 BB/100
- PLO5/PLO6 or loose lineups: 130–180 BB/100
- Live PLO: 150–250+ BB/100
Validate your SD from trackers rather than guessing. This is especially important if you regularly 3-bet, cold-call wide, and play high-variance lines.
PLO365’s expertise and data come primarily from real PLO databases. Our examples and default values are tuned around Omaha realities, not NLH theory with PLO as an afterthought.
Why PLO365 Built Its Own Poker Variance Calculator
PLO365 exists to give PLO players data-driven tools, equity calculators, variance models, rake analysis, rather than generic NLH-oriented advice that doesn’t account for Omaha’s unique characteristics.
FTD Boost Ltd (Malta), the company behind PLO365, tested multiple existing variance tools. We imported real PLO databases with hundreds of thousands of hands and compared expected versus simulated downswing profiles. Then we tuned our own calculator to match observed PLO reality.
Designed for three player types:
- Volume Grinders: Multi-table on approved sites, care about rakeback, need to plan around high hand counts
- Soft Game Hunters: Want to see how soft sites reduce risk, willing to sacrifice HUDs for fish
- Students: Need to understand variance before moving up, want realistic expectations not wishful thinking
Our internal testing sessions (2022–2025 PLO50–PLO500 databases with 1–3 BB/100 winners) were used to verify typical downswing magnitudes against simulation outputs. When the tool says you might experience a 6,000 BB downswing, we’ve seen it happen in real data.
Honest limitations:
- The calculator assumes no tilt
- No major strategy changes mid-sample
- Stable game conditions
- Real-world downswings can be worse if you deviate from A-game
Treat the PLO365 variance calculator as your baseline career planning tool. Run it before changing stakes, switching sites, or deciding how much of your life roll to allocate to poker.
What to Do After Running Your Variance Simulation
Once you see your potential swings and bankroll management requirements, take action. Adjust stakes, sites, and study plans instead of hoping to run good.
Clear next steps if risk of ruin is too high:
- Build a larger bankroll before continuing at current stakes
- Move down to low stakes where your roll provides adequate cushion
- Improve win rate through study (PLO Mastermind, FlopHero, PLO365 equity tools)
- Lower SD via table selection, tighter game type choices, and fewer tables
For Volume Grinders:
Combine the variance calculator with choosing better rooms from the PLO365-approved stack:
- BCPoker: Soft PLO5 games, 4-table cap, good rakeback
- CoinPoker: Crypto infrastructure, high rakeback, fast cashouts
- Champion Poker: HUD-friendly iPoker network for data-driven play
- WPT Global & Phenom Poker: Soft recreational fields for bum-hunting
For Students:
Use the tool as a reality check. Before jumping to PLO200 or PLO500, run realistic win rate and SD numbers. See what downswings actually look like. Ask whether your bankroll management and mental state are ready for poker tournaments-level swings in cash games.
Variance is not a mystery or a curse. It’s a measurable risk. Using the PLO365 poker variance simulator lets you price that risk, prepare for it, and keep your Omaha career alive through the inevitable swings.
Putting your numbers into a simulation takes one minute. The informed decisions that follow can protect thousands of dollars in poker bankroll and years of play.
Run your numbers. Know your range. Play accordingly. Good luck!
